Ukrainakrisen är det lätt att bli förvirrad av. Några lästips som kan göra saken mer begriplig.
Walter Russell Mead:
Ukrainian society is unable to produce a strong and united government that could limit the influence of foreign interests and lobbies so that the Ukrainian state and people would follow a consistent course toward either Moscow or Brussels, much less find some kind of effective pathway in between. Meanwhile, given the inability of internal forces to set a firm course, Russia lacks the resources and the West lacks the will to attach Ukraine firmly and irrevocably to either camp.
I Wall Street Journal analyserar Walter Russell Mead även konflikten i geopolitiska termer:
With Ukraine, Russia can at least aspire to great power status and can hope to build a power center between the EU and China that can stand on something approaching equal terms with both. If, on the other hand, the verdict of 1989 and the Soviet collapse becomes final, Russia must come to terms with the same kind of loss of empire and stature that Britain, France and Spain have faced. Mr. Putin's standing at home will be sharply, and perhaps decisively, diminished.
Both the EU and the U.S. made a historic blunder by underestimating Russia's reaction to the Ukrainian trade agreement. Mr. Putin cannot let Ukraine slip out of Russia's sphere without throwing everything he has into the fight. As I wrote last fall, the EU brought a baguette to a knife fight, and the bloody result is on the streets of Kiev.
The policy of detaching Ukraine from Russia should either have been pursued with enormous determination and focus—and an irresistible array of economic and political instruments of persuasion—or it should not have been pursued at all.
In this situation, the vision held by some people in Europe, apparently including many leaders of the EU, current representatives of the Czech Republic, and especially political activists that it is possible to allow for a contest about the future evolution of Ukraine and to wage a war about its convergence with the West or the East, is overlooking reality. Such pressures would or will lead the country into an unsolvable conflict that may only result in a tragedy.
Och i Sevastopol, där Ryssland även har sin Svarta havsflotta stationerad, mullrar det obehagligt.
Demonstrators waved Russian flags – there was not a Ukrainian flag to be seen – and chanted "Russia, Russia, Russia" during the gathering.
"Sevastopol is a Russian town and will always be a Russian town… we will never surrender to those fascists in Kiev," said Anatoly, who was handing out Russian flags and declined to give his surname. "The struggle is only just beginning."